Annotations for Speakers: Jeremi Suri

Welcome to our new episode of This is Democracy. This week, we are continuing our discussion of democracies and elections around the world. This is, as we've said many times on the podcast, this is a year with more democracies voting, and more non democracies voting as well in elections around the world than at any point in human history before. And these elections and democracies and non democracies will really set the course for so many countries and probably for our globe moving forward for the next years and decades we are going to discuss today the recent elections in Venezuela and the controversies over those recent elections in Venezuela. On July 28 2024 the country of Venezuela held elections, and the incumbent president and dictator, Nicolás Maduro, claims he won the elections, but almost all observers, including the United States, are pretty clear on the evidence that Maduro lost these elections, what has happened in Venezuela and where do we go from here? We're going to understand the history surrounding these elections, what occurred in these elections, and we're going to think about based on knowledge of what's happened in other societies, particularly in the same region. We're going to discuss where we think these election results might go in the future of Venezuela. We are fortunate to be joined by my colleague and friend and someone who I think has done some of the most impressive work on authoritarianism and related regime change issues in Latin America. This is my colleague, Professor Kurt Wayland. Kurt Wayland is the Mike Hogg Professor in the Liberal Arts at the University of Texas at Austin. He's done amazing primary source research and direct interviews, the kind of work that historians love when you get dirty with the primary sources. He's done this research in so many countries in the region, probably as many as anyone else, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Costa Rica, Peru and, of course, Venezuela. I probably left off some other countries, and I've of course forgotten to mention that he's also done research in the United States. Professor Wayland is the author of seven books. I'm going to just name a few of them, The Politics of Market Reform in Fragile Democracies, which was published in 2002, Making Waves: Democratic Contention in Europe and Latin America. 2014. Assault on Democracy: Communism, Fascism and Authoritarianism During the Interwar Years, published in 2021 and published just this year, a book I need to read because I haven't kept up with everything Kurt's written. It's impossible to keep up with it. Democracy's Resilience to Populism Threat, a book that's probably directly relevant to our discussion today. Professor Kurt Wayland, Kurt, thanks for joining us today.

Yes, yes. We are eager to hear your thoughts before we turn to Kurt's insights on this important topic. We have, of course, Mr. Zachary's poem. What's your poem titled today Zachary?

Hungry in Caracas, it, it sounds almost like a parable of sorts. Is it? We'll see. We'll see. Okay, let's hear it

Okay, let's hear it

I love the range of that Zachary, from the Hungry, Angry voters to the mustachioed militaristic leader. What is your poem about?

Right, right. Very well, said. Kurt to help us understand that this sad moment, in some ways, this tragic moment, as I think you mentioned earlier, where should we start? Nicolás Maduro is the dictator who replaced the prior dictator, Hugo Chávez. How should we understand the origins of this regime?

Kurt, that's a incredibly helpful overview, and I'm amazed at how much you were able to pack into that one answer that really helps us understand the rise of what was first a populist authoritarian regime and what now sounds like almost an Orwellian nightmare, is dictatorship which is obviously destroying the country, and it also helps to explain the incredibly large number of Venezuelan refugees coming to the United States, for example. Why did Maduro hold this election? It was clear he was going to lose. He did ban the Leader of the Opposition, Maria Corina Machado, but even with the stand-in opposition figure, Edmundo Gonzalez, it was quite clear from weeks ago, I think, right, that the opposition was going to get more votes. Why did he subject himself to this election?

And, Kurt, did, did Maduro think he would win? Was he fooled? There have been a number of articles saying that he's surrounded by so many sycophants that that he actually thought he was still popular. Is that true? Or is he more cynical than that.

It's a terrible situation. Zachary,

Right, right. It makes a lot of sense. And it's, it's, it's a paradoxical consequence of creating an international system that is in some cases, trying to hold war criminals and other horrible leaders accountable. The examples of Slobodan Milosevic from Serbia and others obviously stand stand out. Yes, please.

So do you think, Kurt, that it would be a better scenario if the international community were able to offer Maduro and his closest criminals safe haven to go live in Russia or live in the south of France, as the former dictator of Haiti did. Is that a viable alternative?

Zachary.

This is all very depressing. I have to say, Kurt, it sounds like we have a truly dystopian regime, but a dystopian regime that has developed coup-proof tentacles, as as many in the field would say, so. So what are the what are the options for going forward? I mean, there is a very well organized opposition, courageous, an opposition that was able to bring out a lot of voters, and also, as you said, the economy in Venezuela, despite Venezuela having more oil resources than any other country in the world, more oil than Saudi Arabia, even, nonetheless, this country is starving because of the mismanagement and the corruption and the International sanctions. So is there a breaking point? What does that look like? Where do you see this going?

Well Kurt, what about the possibility that we've seen in other countries such as Ukraine, where mid and lower level members of the military who see their families suffering, who see their neighborhoods destroyed, who are ashamed of what they're seeing, that they at some point. Point turn on the generals and and their dictator.

Well, that's a that's a very compelling, if sad, answer. Kurt, we like to close every episode with something hopeful, and I think we need that in this case. Our listeners are are are people who, like us, care about democracy, want to see reform to regimes like the one you've described. They wanna see reform in The United States too. What are the things we can do? What do you, as a as a leading scholar of the region, how do you think about your work and the work of your students and others contributing in some positive way to this terrible situation?

No. That's a that's an honest and and compelling answer.

What what do you think US policy should be? Are we is it appropriate to keep sanctions on Venezuela? Are there any any changes you would recommend in US policy?

Zachary, what do you think of all this? I mean, as as someone who cares about democracy, as part of a generation that's hoping to see more democracy in more countries, This is hard to listen to. Right? This is a really difficult story, and and, you know, and in some ways, it it is in our backyard. How do you react to this?

I agree, and and I think Kurt has quite brilliantly laid out for us in his work and in the discussion here an important research agenda, a research agenda not just for scholars like Kurt and myself, but for for all kinds of citizens, which is thinking through what are the options, what are the things the international community can and cannot do. And I would just highlight a point that Kurt made, which is that, in some ways, the efforts to hold appropriately leaders accountable for their crimes, and in theory, I'm certainly for that, but that effort often makes it harder to get them to leave power. And if our goal as supporters of democracy in a broad sense is about getting dictators out and nondictators in and building institutions, it's probably time we think through a little more, in a more sophisticated way how to do that. It it it seems as if the dictators are ahead of us in our thinking about international democracy and international democratic procedures. Is that a fair note to close on, Kurt? Do you agree with that?

Yes. And, of course, even your joke about Saint Helena points to another problem. When Napoleon was sent to Saint Helena, first of all, he wasn't happy to be there, and then in the end, he was poisoned because they were fearful. The European states said he would come back again, which is always the concern if you if you let these people go to a Saint Helena, that they'll just return. Kurt Weyland, thank you so much for joining us today, for sharing, really, I think, compelling, if quite depressing, insights into Venezuela and and I think the larger challenge of dictatorship and coup proofing regimes in in various places around the world. Venezuela is just one of the worst examples, but there are many others. I encourage our listeners to read Kurt's work. It's really eye opening in its depth and its comparative, breadth. So thank you, Kurt, for joining us today.

That's right. We we have to pursue the truth. And and for activists who care about democracy, we have to stare the reality in the face. We can't dream up futures that that don't match the world that we're in. Zachary, thank you for your inspiring poem and excellent questions as always, And thank you to our loyal listeners and subscribers to our Substack for joining us for this discussion of This Is Democracy.